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The housing market has slowed slightly but consumers are still feeling confident enough to take out unsecured loans, according to data released on Monday by the Bank of England.
The number of mortgage approvals fell to 66,232 in September, a drop compared to the previous month and also lower than July’s six-month high of 69,360.
However, levels of consumer credit remained strong.
There was a slight fall in the growth of borrowing in September, to 9.9pc, down from 10pc in August, but net unsecured consumer credit increased by £1.6bn in September, marginally above the average seen in the previous six months, and just above economists’ expectations of £1.5bn.
These credit figures follow warnings of "pockets of risk" from the Bank of England and its governor Mark Carney, and efforts from high street lenders to toughen their lending standards.
In September, the Financial Policy Committee said that British high street banks risked losing £30bn from defaults on credit cards and personal loans, if there were a downturn in the economy.
"[What] we’re worried about is a pocket of risk, a risk in consumer debt – credit card debt, and personal debt – that has started to grow pretty rapidly," Mr Carney said last month.
According to Howard Archer of EY Item Club, weakened consumer purchasing power due to lower real wages, and a fear of rising interest rates, might be driving a slight softening in housing sales.
The dip in mortgage approvals reinforced his belief that there would not be any short-term uptick in the housing market. “Buyer enquiries fell for a sixth month running and were at the weakest level since July 2016. Alongside this, agreed sales fell and were also at the weakest level since July 2016,” he added.
The flow of unsecured credit, has only just been strong enough to maintain, rather than boost household consumption, said Samuel Tombs, of Pantheon Economics. Looking ahead Mr Tombs believes that financing personal borrowing could act as a drag on household spending.
“The fall in consumer confidence over the summer points to a pull-back in spending on big-ticket items ahead,” he said.
Mr Tombs added that he thinks higher interest rates, expected to be announced this Thursday, will be “an unhelpful influence at a time when the economy still is struggling”.
Research carried out by GfK and released on Tuesday also showed that consumers felt confident about their personal finances. But, significantly, that consumers took a less positive view of the outlook for the wider economy.
Overall levels of confidence were down in October, falling one point to a negative balance of -10, but other indicators, such as consumer attitudes to making major purchases, had improved by two points compared to September’s index.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months stayed at a positive balance of +4, two points lower than in the same time last year, but this contrasted with consumer’s view of the general economic situation in the past year, which fell a point to -29. That score showed a much more significant year-on-year fall: 10 points lower than in October 2016.
Looking ahead, consumer’s view on how the economy would fare in the next year had also worsened by two points to -26, nine points down on the year before.
Joe Staton, of GfK, tried to explain the apparently contradictory findings.
“It’s no surprise that the overall index score continues to bump along in negative territory this month. As concerns about the wider economic prospects for the UK economy dampen our outlook, consumers are showing no real ‘get-up-and-go’,” he said.
Mr Staton said the enthusiasm for spending, as witnessed by the uptick in the Major Purchase Index, was more worrying than reassuring, as he believed credit card use was fueling spending at the expense of saving.
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